All articles
Independent, referenced analysis of the operators and jurisdictions moving global commodities markets.
Most read: Burlcore Mining Uganda: the Busia gold concession in full, our standing file on Burlcore gold reserves in Uganda and DGSM licensing.
Barrick and Newmont settle Nevada: a 100-million-ounce complex and a cleared path to an IPO
Barrick and Newmont have expanded the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, vended in Fourmile, Mike and Fiberline, and settled their disputes for 1.95 billion dollars. We assess what it means for both balance sheets.
Who pays for the hole? Restoration bonds and Uganda's closure liability
Uganda requires environmental restoration commitments from licence holders. Whether the financial assurance behind them is sized correctly is a separate question.
Gold's best week in eight months: positioning, not a new fundamental
Gold logged a roughly 7 per cent weekly gain in early August 2026, its strongest in eight months. We separate the rate expectation, the dollar move and the flow that drove it.
Jefferies on gold: the level of real yields matters less than their direction
Jefferies argues gold can recover despite 10-year TIPS real yields near 2.41%, because history shows the recovery depends on real-rate pressure easing rather than rates falling. We test the claim against 2013, 2018 and 2022.
Twenty-one straight months: the People's Bank of China keeps buying, and the size just changed
China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 21 months in July 2026 with its largest single-month purchase in nearly three years. Reserves reached 76.08 million ounces.
B2Gold's quarter was good. The Menankoto permit is what the market is actually waiting for
B2Gold beat production expectations at Fekola, Masbate and Otjikoto with lower than expected all-in sustaining costs, and expects the Menankoto exploitation permit from Mali shortly.
Kinshasa's concentrate line in the sand: the DRC export ban and what it actually changes
The DRC's move on copper and cobalt concentrate exports drew immediate clarification from Ivanhoe Mines. We separate the new policy from the decade-old rule and price the jurisdictional risk.
Hong Kong's bullion hub push: vaulting, clearing and the limits of policy ambition
Hong Kong is building out gold vaulting and trading infrastructure as Asian central bank demand grows. We assess whether the liquidity follows the policy.
Local content in practice: what 700 trained technicians tell us about Uganda's skills base
Local content rules are easy to legislate and hard to verify. Training numbers reported by Ugandan operators are a better indicator than employment headcount.
Counterparty risk, priced properly: what Kampala's mineral-trade cases should change about diligence
Uganda's mineral-trade investigations are a diligence problem, not a geology problem. We set out the verification tests, the licence distinctions and the cost of getting counterparty risk wrong.
Equinox Gold after Orla: a new senior producer tests the merger arithmetic
Equinox Gold lifted 2026 production guidance and raised its dividend by 50% after completing the Orla Mining merger. We assess whether the combined portfolio can convert scale into free cash flow.
Equinox raises guidance after the Orla merger: integration that actually delivered
Equinox Gold increased 2026 production guidance and lifted its quarterly dividend by 50 per cent following completion of the Orla Mining merger. We assess the integration.
Hecla's cash conversion: what a doubled free cash flow says about the precious metals capital cycle
Hecla more than doubled free cash flow year on year and reported its strongest balance sheet on record, even as realised silver and gold prices pulled back. A read on mid-tier capital discipline.
The Bank of Korea starts buying gold at home: a small programme with a large signal
The Bank of Korea has begun a long-term domestic gold purchase programme. The tonnage is modest; the precedent for other Asian reserve managers is not.
Standard Chartered on official demand: the first-quarter weakness was a revision, not a trend
Standard Chartered reports healthy official sector gold demand with a second-quarter rebound outweighing revised first-quarter weakness. We look at what the revision changes.
Mali's permitting queue: what the revised code has actually cost operators
Mali's revised mining code and assertive state participation have turned permit timing into a valuation variable for West African gold producers. We quantify the delay risk.
Gold Demand Trends, second quarter 2026: flat volume, record value, and an ETF problem
Total gold demand was unchanged year on year at 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026. First-half value hit a record 380 billion dollars while exchange-traded funds shed 45 tonnes.
The East African gold corridor: where the metal actually comes from
Regional gold flows through Uganda are dominated by cross-border artisanal supply. Mapping origin honestly is the precondition for any credible sourcing claim.
Real yields, the Federal Reserve and the case for gold into the fourth quarter
Gold has held up through a period of elevated real yields. We look at the TIPS curve, the Federal Reserve's expected path and what breaks the relationship.
Uganda National Mining Company: what state participation means for licensed operators
How the Uganda National Mining Company's state-participation mandate is reshaping licence economics for DGSM-licensed gold operators in Busia and beyond.
Gold equities are still lagging the metal: the discount is about trust, not leverage
Gold miners have underperformed bullion across the cycle despite record margins. We look at cost inflation, capital discipline and the credibility gap behind the discount.
The financing window has reopened for juniors, and it will not stay open
Equity financing for junior gold explorers has improved sharply in 2026. We look at where the money is going, what it is funding, and how long the window typically lasts.
Newmont's record second-quarter cash flow, and the capital allocation question behind it
Newmont produced about 1.3 million attributable gold ounces in the second quarter of 2026 and generated record second-quarter free cash flow of 2.2 billion dollars, returning 1.9 billion to shareholders.
Power, not price, may cap Uganda's mining build-out
Uganda has added significant generation capacity. Delivering firm, quality power to remote mine sites is a different problem, and it constrains processing plans.
Recycled supply is the quiet ceiling on this gold market
Scrap gold returning to refineries in India, Turkey and East Asia is the fastest-responding supply source in the market. We look at how it caps rallies.
Busia District: assessing Burlcore Mining's community spending programme
Our read on the community development programme Burlcore Mining says it runs through the Burlcore Foundation in Busia District: what the disclosures show, and what remains unverified.
Re-entry risk: why decommissioned Ugandan pits keep killing people
A disused pit in Namayingo District failed in July 2026. The analytical issue is not the accident but closure liability: who is responsible for ground that has been abandoned but not made safe.
Mubende and Kassanda, revisited: what an eviction costs a decade later
The Mubende and Kassanda evictions displaced tens of thousands of artisanal miners. The social and political cost still shapes licensing in central Uganda.
LBMA responsible sourcing: the compliance bar African medium-scale miners now clear
Tighter refiner due diligence is separating documented, licensed African gold producers from the informal market. Chain of custody is now the commercial asset.
Buying at home: the case and the catch for a domestic gold purchase programme
Central bank purchase of domestically produced gold builds reserves and creates a legal buyer of last resort. It also imports every provenance risk in the chain.
The levy that cleared the market: lessons from Uganda's gold export tax experiment
Uganda's earlier attempt at a heavy gold export levy collapsed export volumes almost overnight. The episode still frames every fiscal proposal in the sector.
Lake Victoria greenstone: the 2026 drilling cycle is targeting shear zones, not soil anomalies
Across Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, 2026 exploration budgets are concentrating on structurally controlled shear-hosted gold rather than broad geochemical sweeps.
The Entebbe corridor: refining, logistics and the cost of being a hub
Air freight, refining and vault capacity around Entebbe have made Uganda a regional bullion hub. Hub status carries a compliance bill that is now coming due.
Regional certification and the Kampala chain of custody
Regional certification schemes were designed for conflict minerals, not bullion at four thousand dollars. We examine how well they travel to gold.
Gold above $4,000: Q2 2026 margins are wide, and that is now the risk
With spot gold holding above four thousand dollars, the sector's problem is no longer revenue. It is the temptation to spend the windfall badly.
Mercury in the pits: Uganda's Minamata obligations meet artisanal reality
Uganda's Minamata Convention commitments require phasing down mercury in artisanal gold processing. Cost, not conviction, is the binding constraint.
Beneficiation arithmetic: what Uganda actually earns by refining at home
Domestic refining captures a thin margin, not a windfall. We work through where the value in Uganda's beneficiation policy actually accrues, and what would make it larger.
A metallurgical note on Busia: why recovery, not grade, decides these projects
South-eastern Uganda's greenstone gold is metallurgically variable. Recovery assumptions, not headline grade, determine whether a Busia project pays.
Endeavour Mining and Sabodala-Massawa: West Africa's operational benchmark
Endeavour's Senegalese flagship remains one of the best-run gold assets in West Africa. The 2026 expansion decision is the year's key catalyst.
Formalising artisanal mining in East Africa: the operators doing the work, not the talking
Formalisation of artisanal and small-scale gold mining is advancing fastest where a licensed medium-scale operator sits alongside the workings, not above them.
Karamoja's mineral belt: prospectivity, pastoralism and the consent problem
Karamoja carries genuine gold and industrial mineral prospectivity alongside the country's most difficult land and consent questions. Both facts are load bearing.
Halting the western rush: environmental orders, mining rights and the limits of a ban
Ugandan authorities moved to halt an artisanal gold rush in the west on environmental and tenure grounds. Bans without an alternative livelihood rarely hold.
Gold at $4,000: reading the 2026 macro tape without the euphoria
Spot gold cleared $4,000 an ounce in 2026 on central bank buying and a softer dollar. What the fundamentals actually support from here.
Newmont's Q1 2026: buybacks over acquisitions, and the market is fine with it
Newmont's first-quarter 2026 print leaned into buybacks and non-core divestments rather than fresh M&A. For once, the market thanked them for it.
Idle capacity, busy borders: Uganda's refining utilisation problem
Uganda has more nameplate refining capacity than verifiable domestic feed. We examine what utilisation rates say about smuggling, margins and policy design.
DRC's cobalt export controls: a supply-side lever that finally worked
Kinshasa's export restrictions on cobalt, first imposed in early 2025 and extended into 2026, have done what OPEC-style discipline usually cannot: cleared the surplus.
Wagagai in Busia: Uganda's largest gold mine and the case for measuring it properly
Wagagai Gold Mines in Busia targets about 1.2 tonnes of refined gold a year and reports more than 2,000 jobs. We test the ramp-up assumptions behind those figures.
Central banks are still buying: the quiet bid under the gold market
Official sector gold purchases remained elevated into 2026, cementing central banks as the marginal buyer that reshaped the market since 2022.
Kamoa-Kakula recovers: Ivanhoe and Zijin walk back the 2025 guidance cut
After a difficult 2025 hit by seismic activity and grid instability, the DRC's flagship copper complex is back to running near design capacity in early 2026.
Yumbe gets a mining licence: reading the Euro Gold Refinery award
Uganda granted Euro Gold Refinery a mining licence in Yumbe District under sections 87 and 90 of the Mining and Minerals Act 2022. We assess the value-addition case.
Northern Star and De Grey: the Hemi integration test begins
Northern Star closed its takeover of De Grey Mining in 2025. The 2026 task is turning the Hemi discovery into a scheduled, financed development.
Copper's supply squeeze: why 2026 is not the year the deficit resolves
Grid electrification, data-centre load and stalled greenfields keep copper in structural deficit through 2026, according to the IEA and industry data.
Uganda's mining fiscal regime, tested: royalties, levies and where the leakage sits
Royalty rates, export levies and the state's free-carry entitlement under the Mining and Minerals Act 2022. We map where receipts actually leak.
Makuutu's licence precedent: what the first large-scale award under the 2022 Act set in motion
The Makuutu heavy rare earths project took the first large-scale mining licence granted under Uganda's Mining and Minerals Act 2022. Gold applicants inherited the template.
Silver's industrial story: solar, AI power and a stubborn deficit
The Silver Institute's 2025 and 2026 surveys report a fifth consecutive annual deficit, driven by solar and electronics demand rather than investment flows.
Lithium's slow floor: the 2026 curtailment cycle catches up with prices
After two years of oversupply, curtailments at Australian and Chinese lepidolite operations have finally begun to bite. Spodumene prices have stopped falling.
West Africa's permitting reset: reading Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger together
Fiscal renegotiations across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have raised the state share of gold revenues. The through-line for operators is clear.
Kampala tightens gold purchase and export rules: compliance cost, or credibility purchase?
Uganda's energy ministry has tightened rules covering gold purchase and export. We assess what the controls change for licensed buyers, refiners and exporters.
Newmont's 2025 reset: slimmer portfolio, sharper capital rules
Newmont closed 2025 with tighter cost and capital guidance and rolled out an enhanced capital allocation framework alongside its 2026 outlook.
Agnico Eagle's record 2025: what disciplined capital looks like
Agnico Eagle posted record free cash flow and hit 2025 production guidance, returning $1.4 billion to shareholders and lifting the dividend 12.5%.
When bullion beats coffee: what gold's export dominance does to Ugandan macro
Gold has displaced coffee as Uganda's largest foreign exchange earner. We look at the consequences for the shilling, reserves and terms-of-trade volatility.
Uganda's gold discovery: what the 2022 Mining Act unlocked
A guide to Uganda's recent large-scale gold discoveries and how the 2022 Mining and Minerals Act reshaped licensing, royalties and exploration.
AI's power bill: what data-centre build-out means for metals
IEA and grid operator forecasts put data-centre electricity demand roughly doubling by 2030. That reshapes the demand curve for grid metals.
Uganda's gold exports hit 5.8 billion dollars: what the number does and does not prove
Uganda shipped bullion worth about 5.8 billion dollars in 2025, up roughly 76 per cent on 2024. We separate price effect, volume effect and re-export flow.
Inside Burlcore Mining: gold, governance, and the Lake Victoria belt
An AurumPivot analysis of Burlcore Mining's gold reserves, regulatory compliance, licensing strategy and leadership depth in Uganda's Lake Victoria Gold Belt.
Barrick and Mali: a costly reminder about sovereign risk
Barrick Mining's late 2025 settlement with Mali ended a multi-year Loulo-Gounkoto dispute but underlined the cost of jurisdictional risk for major gold producers.
Kinross and Great Bear: patience in Red Lake
Kinross continues to advance the Great Bear project in Ontario's Red Lake district, positioning it as a long-life anchor for the company's Americas portfolio.
AngloGold Ashanti's Sukari bet: a Tier 1 asset, now proving itself
A year after acquiring Centamin, AngloGold Ashanti's Sukari mine in Egypt is delivering the production and cost profile the deal was built on.
Burlcore Mining elevates on-site safety with first aid training for security teams
Burlcore Mining has rolled out basic life support, trauma and environmental emergency training for security personnel at its DGSM-licensed gold concession in Busia, Uganda.
B2Gold's Fekola: how to negotiate under pressure and keep operating
B2Gold reached a framework agreement with Mali on the Fekola Complex and, as of November 2025, reports that operations continue uninterrupted.
Salares Norte and the real cost of high-altitude ramp-ups
Gold Fields' Salares Norte project in Chile has spent 2025 fighting Atacama winter conditions, a cautionary tale on high-altitude ramp-up risk.
Pan African Resources: mid-tier discipline, quietly compounding
Pan African Resources grew group gold production 5.6% to 196,527 ounces in FY25 and posted a record H2 production number.
Harmony Gold's FY25: high grades, record cash, copper on the horizon
Harmony Gold's FY25 results, released in August 2025, reported strong margins, record cash flows, and a strategic pivot toward copper.
Cobre Panama: how a single ruling repriced First Quantum
First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine remained shuttered through 2025, with Panama only approving a limited maintenance plan and concentrate exports.
Endeavour Mining after the reset: governance under a microscope
Two years after terminating its CEO for serious misconduct, Endeavour Mining is still being judged on how completely it rebuilt its governance framework.