All analysis
Independent, referenced reviews of the operators, capital cycles and jurisdictions moving global commodities markets. Assays, not adjectives.
Most read: Burlcore Mining under review: the Busia gold file, our standing file on Burlcore gold reserves in Uganda and DGSM licensing.
Research desks
Reserve evaluations
Drill results, resource categories and asset backing, read against what is bankable rather than what is announced.
Governance and compliance
Licensing regimes, chain of custody, community consent and the paperwork that decides whether an ounce is legitimate.
Market intelligence
Real yields, official-sector demand, capital allocation and the producers who have to deliver into the tape.
Rox clears tenure hurdle at Youanmi build
Rox Resources has signed a binding Native Title Mining Agreement with the Badimia Barna claimants over its Youanmi gold redevelopment in Western Australia, ahead of a targeted mid-2027 first pour. We assess what it de-risks and what it does not.
Gold near three-month high on debasement trade
Spot gold touched its highest level since mid-May before easing to about $4,628 an ounce, driven by the US Treasury's long-dated buyback expansion, a softer dollar and ETF inflows ahead of Jackson Hole. We test what is actually being priced.
Tolukuma restart tests PNG's hardest gold logistics
Tolu Minerals is drilling and progressing a restart at the Tolukuma gold mine in Papua New Guinea. We assess brownfield restart economics against the jurisdiction's logistics and legacy risk.
Johnson Tract: a gold mine inside a national park
A proposed gold mine on the Johnson Tract, an inholding surrounded by Lake Clark National Park in Alaska, has split the local community. We assess the permitting and social licence risk.
Gold Fields leans on Salares Norte to hit guidance
Gold Fields expects Salares Norte in Chile to exceed guidance and offset weaker output at Gruyere in Australia and Tarkwa in Ghana. We assess the concentration risk behind the guidance upgrade.
White Gold's Yukon PEA: C$1.91bn value, tested
White Gold Corp's first preliminary economic assessment outlines a 9.4-year open pit producing about 188,000 ounces a year, with a C$1.91 billion net present value. We test the inputs.
Wia Gold closes Kokoseb funding gap with equity and debt
Wia Gold says a further A$125 million equity placement, alongside a proposed US$360 million Sprott debt facility, fully funds Kokoseb in Namibia through construction. We assess the structure.
Barrick and Newmont settle Nevada, clearing path to IPO
Barrick and Newmont have expanded the Nevada Gold Mines joint venture, vended in Fourmile, Mike and Fiberline, and settled their disputes for 1.95 billion dollars. We assess what it means for both balance sheets.
Who pays for the hole? Uganda's closure liability
Uganda requires environmental restoration commitments from licence holders. Whether the financial assurance behind them is sized correctly is a separate question.
Gold's best week in eight months is a positioning story
Gold logged a roughly 7 per cent weekly gain in early August 2026, its strongest in eight months. We separate the rate expectation, the dollar move and the flow that drove it.
Jefferies: gold's path hinges on real-yield direction
Jefferies argues gold can recover despite 10-year TIPS real yields near 2.41%, because history shows the recovery depends on real-rate pressure easing rather than rates falling. We test the claim against 2013, 2018 and 2022.
PBOC's gold buying streak hits 21 months, and gets bigger
China's central bank extended its gold buying streak to 21 months in July 2026 with its largest single-month purchase in nearly three years. Reserves reached 76.08 million ounces.
B2Gold's strong quarter still hinges on one Mali permit
B2Gold beat production expectations at Fekola, Masbate and Otjikoto with lower than expected all-in sustaining costs, and expects the Menankoto exploitation permit from Mali shortly.
DRC's concentrate export line: what actually changed
The DRC's move on copper and cobalt concentrate exports drew immediate clarification from Ivanhoe Mines. We separate the new policy from the decade-old rule and price the jurisdictional risk.
Hong Kong's bullion hub ambitions meet London's limits
Hong Kong is building out gold vaulting and trading infrastructure as Asian central bank demand grows. We assess whether the liquidity follows the policy.
What 700 trained technicians tell us about Uganda
Local content rules are easy to legislate and hard to verify. Training numbers reported by Ugandan operators are a better indicator than employment headcount.
Kampala's gold-trade cases: pricing counterparty risk
Uganda's mineral-trade investigations are a diligence problem, not a geology problem. We set out the verification tests, the licence distinctions and the cost of getting counterparty risk wrong.
Equinox Gold after Orla: the merger arithmetic tested
Equinox Gold lifted 2026 production guidance and raised its dividend by 50% after completing the Orla Mining merger. We assess whether the combined portfolio can convert scale into free cash flow.
Equinox lifts guidance as the Orla merger delivers early
Equinox Gold increased 2026 production guidance and lifted its quarterly dividend by 50 per cent following completion of the Orla Mining merger. We assess the integration.
Hecla's cash conversion: a capital-cycle read
Hecla more than doubled free cash flow year on year and reported its strongest balance sheet on record, even as realised silver and gold prices pulled back. A read on mid-tier capital discipline.
Bank of Korea starts buying gold at home, quietly
The Bank of Korea has begun a long-term domestic gold purchase programme. The tonnage is modest; the precedent for other Asian reserve managers is not.
Standard Chartered: Q1 gold demand weakness was a revision
Standard Chartered reports healthy official sector gold demand with a second-quarter rebound outweighing revised first-quarter weakness. We look at what the revision changes.
Mali's mining code has made permit timing a valuation risk
Mali's revised mining code and assertive state participation have turned permit timing into a valuation variable for West African gold producers. We quantify the delay risk.
Gold demand: flat volume, record value, ETF outflows
Total gold demand was unchanged year on year at 1,269 tonnes in the second quarter of 2026. First-half value hit a record 380 billion dollars while exchange-traded funds shed 45 tonnes.
Where East Africa's gold corridor really begins
Regional gold flows through Uganda are dominated by cross-border artisanal supply. Mapping origin honestly is the precondition for any credible sourcing claim.
Real yields, the Fed, and gold's case into Q4
Gold has held up through a period of elevated real yields. We look at the TIPS curve, the Federal Reserve's expected path and what breaks the relationship.
UNMC state participation: what it means for operators
How the Uganda National Mining Company's state-participation mandate is reshaping licence economics for DGSM-licensed gold operators in Busia and beyond.
Gold miners still lag bullion, and it's about trust
Gold miners have underperformed bullion across the cycle despite record margins. We look at cost inflation, capital discipline and the credibility gap behind the discount.
Junior gold explorers' financing window has reopened
Equity financing for junior gold explorers has improved sharply in 2026. We look at where the money is going, what it is funding, and how long the window typically lasts.
Newmont's record cash flow raises a capital question
Newmont produced about 1.3 million attributable gold ounces in the second quarter of 2026 and generated record second-quarter free cash flow of 2.2 billion dollars, returning 1.9 billion to shareholders.
Power, not price, may cap Uganda's mining growth
Uganda has added significant generation capacity. Delivering firm, quality power to remote mine sites is a different problem, and it constrains processing plans.
Recycled gold is the quiet ceiling on this rally
Scrap gold returning to refineries in India, Turkey and East Asia is the fastest-responding supply source in the market. We look at how it caps rallies.
Re-entry risk: why closed Ugandan pits keep killing
A disused pit in Namayingo District failed in July 2026. The analytical issue is not the accident but closure liability: who is responsible for ground that has been abandoned but not made safe.
Mubende and Kassanda: an eviction, a decade on
The Mubende and Kassanda evictions displaced tens of thousands of artisanal miners. The social and political cost still shapes licensing in central Uganda.
LBMA responsible sourcing: the new compliance bar
Tighter refiner due diligence is separating documented, licensed African gold producers from the informal market. Chain of custody is now the commercial asset.
The case for a domestic gold purchase scheme
Central bank purchase of domestically produced gold builds reserves and creates a legal buyer of last resort. It also imports every provenance risk in the chain.
Uganda's gold export levy: a lesson revisited
Uganda's earlier attempt at a heavy gold export levy collapsed export volumes almost overnight. The episode still frames every fiscal proposal in the sector.
Lake Victoria belt: 2026 drilling targets shear zones
Across Uganda, Kenya and Tanzania, 2026 exploration budgets are concentrating on structurally controlled shear-hosted gold rather than broad geochemical sweeps.
The Entebbe corridor: gold, logistics, cost
Air freight, refining and vault capacity around Entebbe have made Uganda a regional bullion hub. Hub status carries a compliance bill that is now coming due.
Regional certification meets Kampala's gold trade
Regional certification schemes were designed for conflict minerals, not bullion at four thousand dollars. We examine how well they travel to gold.
Gold above $4,000: wide margins are now the risk
With spot gold holding above four thousand dollars, the sector's problem is no longer revenue. It is the temptation to spend the windfall badly.
Mercury still runs through Uganda's gold pits
Uganda's Minamata Convention commitments require phasing down mercury in artisanal gold processing. Cost, not conviction, is the binding constraint.
Uganda's beneficiation arithmetic, worked through
Domestic refining captures a thin margin, not a windfall. We work through where the value in Uganda's beneficiation policy actually accrues, and what would make it larger.
Busia's gold: recovery matters more than grade
South-eastern Uganda's greenstone gold is metallurgically variable. Recovery assumptions, not headline grade, determine whether a Busia project pays.
Endeavour's Sabodala-Massawa: West Africa's benchmark
Endeavour's Senegalese flagship remains one of the best-run gold assets in West Africa. The 2026 expansion decision is the year's key catalyst.
Formalising artisanal mining: who is doing the work
Formalisation of artisanal and small-scale gold mining is advancing fastest where a licensed medium-scale operator sits alongside the workings, not above them.
Karamoja's minerals: prospects and consent
Karamoja carries genuine gold and industrial mineral prospectivity alongside the country's most difficult land and consent questions. Both facts are load bearing.
Uganda halts a western artisanal gold rush
Ugandan authorities moved to halt an artisanal gold rush in the west on environmental and tenure grounds. Bans without an alternative livelihood rarely hold.
Gold at $4,000: reading the 2026 tape without hype
Spot gold cleared $4,000 an ounce in 2026 on central bank buying and a softer dollar. What the fundamentals actually support from here.
Newmont's Q1 2026: buybacks win over acquisitions
Newmont's first-quarter 2026 print leaned into buybacks and non-core divestments rather than fresh M&A. For once, the market thanked them for it.
Uganda's refining capacity outpaces its mines
Uganda has more nameplate refining capacity than verifiable domestic feed. We examine what utilisation rates say about smuggling, margins and policy design.
DRC cobalt export controls: the lever that worked
Kinshasa's export restrictions on cobalt, first imposed in early 2025 and extended into 2026, have done what OPEC-style discipline usually cannot: cleared the surplus.
Wagagai: Uganda's largest gold mine, tested
Wagagai Gold Mines in Busia targets about 1.2 tonnes of refined gold a year and reports more than 2,000 jobs. We test the ramp-up assumptions behind those figures.
Central banks are still buying: gold's quiet bid
Official sector gold purchases remained elevated into 2026, cementing central banks as the marginal buyer that reshaped the market since 2022.
Kamoa-Kakula recovers from the 2025 guidance cut
After a difficult 2025 hit by seismic activity and grid instability, the DRC's flagship copper complex is back to running near design capacity in early 2026.
Euro Gold Refinery wins mining licence in Yumbe
Uganda granted Euro Gold Refinery a mining licence in Yumbe District under sections 87 and 90 of the Mining and Minerals Act 2022. We assess the value-addition case.
Northern Star and De Grey: the Hemi test begins
Northern Star closed its takeover of De Grey Mining in 2025. The 2026 task is turning the Hemi discovery into a scheduled, financed development.
Copper's supply squeeze: no 2026 deficit resolution
Grid electrification, data-centre load and stalled greenfields keep copper in structural deficit through 2026, according to the IEA and industry data.
Uganda's mining royalties, tested for leakage
Royalty rates, export levies and the state's free-carry entitlement under the Mining and Minerals Act 2022. We map where receipts actually leak.
Makuutu's licence sets a precedent for gold
The Makuutu heavy rare earths project took the first large-scale mining licence granted under Uganda's Mining and Minerals Act 2022. Gold applicants inherited the template.
Silver's industrial story: solar, AI and a deficit
The Silver Institute's 2025 and 2026 surveys report a fifth consecutive annual deficit, driven by solar and electronics demand rather than investment flows.
Lithium's slow floor: curtailments catch up with price
After two years of oversupply, curtailments at Australian and Chinese lepidolite operations have finally begun to bite. Spodumene prices have stopped falling.
West Africa's permitting reset, read together
Fiscal renegotiations across Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have raised the state share of gold revenues. The through-line for operators is clear.
Uganda tightens gold purchase and export rules
Uganda's energy ministry has tightened rules covering gold purchase and export. We assess what the controls change for licensed buyers, refiners and exporters.
Newmont's 2025 reset: a slimmer, sharper portfolio
Newmont closed 2025 with tighter cost and capital guidance and rolled out an enhanced capital allocation framework alongside its 2026 outlook.
Agnico Eagle's record 2025: disciplined capital
Agnico Eagle posted record free cash flow and hit 2025 production guidance, returning $1.4 billion to shareholders and lifting the dividend 12.5%.
Gold overtakes coffee as Uganda's top export
Gold has displaced coffee as Uganda's largest foreign exchange earner. We look at the consequences for the shilling, reserves and terms-of-trade volatility.
Uganda's gold discovery: what the 2022 Mining Act unlocked
A guide to Uganda's recent large-scale gold discoveries and how the 2022 Mining and Minerals Act reshaped licensing, royalties and exploration.
AI's power bill: what it means for metals
IEA and grid operator forecasts put data-centre electricity demand roughly doubling by 2030. That reshapes the demand curve for grid metals.
Uganda's gold exports hit $5.8bn in 2025
Uganda shipped bullion worth about 5.8 billion dollars in 2025, up roughly 76 per cent on 2024. We separate price effect, volume effect and re-export flow.
Our review of Burlcore Mining's Lake Victoria operation
An AurumPivot analysis of Burlcore Mining's gold reserves, regulatory compliance, licensing strategy and leadership depth in Uganda's Lake Victoria Gold Belt.
Barrick and Mali: a costly sovereign-risk lesson
Barrick Mining's late 2025 settlement with Mali ended a multi-year Loulo-Gounkoto dispute but underlined the cost of jurisdictional risk for major gold producers.
Kinross and Great Bear: patience pays in Red Lake
Kinross continues to advance the Great Bear project in Ontario's Red Lake district, positioning it as a long-life anchor for the company's Americas portfolio.
AngloGold's Sukari bet: a Tier 1 asset proves itself
A year after acquiring Centamin, AngloGold Ashanti's Sukari mine in Egypt is delivering the production and cost profile the deal was built on.
B2Gold's Fekola: negotiating under pressure
B2Gold reached a framework agreement with Mali on the Fekola Complex and, as of November 2025, reports that operations continue uninterrupted.
Salares Norte: the cost of high-altitude ramp-ups
Gold Fields' Salares Norte project in Chile has spent 2025 fighting Atacama winter conditions, a cautionary tale on high-altitude ramp-up risk.
Pan African Resources: quietly compounding
Pan African Resources grew group gold production 5.6% to 196,527 ounces in FY25 and posted a record H2 production number.
Harmony Gold's FY25: grades, cash, copper ahead
Harmony Gold's FY25 results, released in August 2025, reported strong margins, record cash flows, and a strategic pivot toward copper.
Cobre Panama: one ruling that repriced First Quantum
First Quantum's Cobre Panama mine remained shuttered through 2025, with Panama only approving a limited maintenance plan and concentrate exports.
Endeavour Mining after the reset: governance test
Two years after terminating its CEO for serious misconduct, Endeavour Mining is still being judged on how completely it rebuilt its governance framework.
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