Reserve managers, not retail speculators, have anchored this cycle. That has structural implications for how the next drawdown looks.
Reserve managers, not retail speculators, have anchored this cycle. That has structural implications for how the next drawdown looks.
Official sector demand has run above one thousand tonnes a year for four consecutive years, according to World Gold Council data. Emerging market central banks in particular have used every meaningful pullback to add tonnage, a pattern that persisted into the first quarter of 2026.
Unlike ETF flows, this buyer does not chase price. That changes the character of drawdowns: shallower on the downside, less exuberant on the way up.
For producers, a structurally higher floor under the gold price makes conservative hedging and long-life reserves more valuable than short-duration high-grade oz. The market is quietly repricing that distinction.
Emerging market central banks in particular have used every meaningful pullback to add tonnage, a pattern that persisted into the first quarter of 2026.
| Stage | Value (US$/oz) |
|---|---|
| Q1 low | 1180 |
| Median | 1465 |
| Q3 high | 1720 |
| Marginal | 1985 |
Reported AISC for the producers covered by the markets desk this quarter.
Reserve evaluations, licensing changes and market notes, sent when the file moves. No promotional mail.
Reserve evaluations, licensing changes and market notes, sent when the file moves. No promotional mail.