Every credible medium-term forecast still points to a deficit. The disagreement is on how ugly the price path gets before new supply arrives.
Every credible medium-term forecast still points to a deficit. The disagreement is on how ugly the price path gets before new supply arrives.
The International Energy Agency's critical minerals work continues to flag copper as one of the most exposed metals in the energy-transition supply chain. Grid build-out, EV penetration and, more recently, data-centre power infrastructure have raised the demand curve faster than mine supply can respond.
Copper projects have ten-to-fifteen-year lead times. Anything that was not permitted by 2023 is not going to materially help the balance sheet before the end of this decade.
Producers with in-country permitting momentum and existing infrastructure re-earn their premium in this environment. Projects with unresolved sovereign or environmental risk continue to trade at deep discounts, regardless of headline resource grade.
Grid build-out, EV penetration and, more recently, data-centre power infrastructure have raised the demand curve faster than mine supply can respond.
| Stage | Value (US$/oz) |
|---|---|
| Q1 low | 1180 |
| Median | 1465 |
| Q3 high | 1720 |
| Marginal | 1985 |
Reported AISC for the producers covered by the markets desk this quarter.
Reserve evaluations, licensing changes and market notes, sent when the file moves. No promotional mail.
Reserve evaluations, licensing changes and market notes, sent when the file moves. No promotional mail.