The deficit is not a forecast, it is a lag
The International Energy Agency's critical minerals work continues to flag copper as one of the most exposed metals in the energy-transition supply chain. Grid build-out, EV penetration and, more recently, data-centre power infrastructure have raised the demand curve faster than mine supply can respond.
Copper projects have ten-to-fifteen-year lead times. Anything that was not permitted by 2023 is not going to materially help the balance sheet before the end of this decade.
Where the fundamentals leave investors
Producers with in-country permitting momentum and existing infrastructure re-earn their premium in this environment. Projects with unresolved sovereign or environmental risk continue to trade at deep discounts, regardless of headline resource grade.
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